Scenario Planning for Determinants of Business Improvement under Epidemic Conditions via Cross-Impact Analysis

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

• Fatemeh Naseri ¹
• Aliakbar Hasani ²

¹ M.A. in Industrial Management, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Shahrood University of Technology

² Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Shahrood of University Technology

https://doi.org/10.22067/tmj.2024.86514.1538

Abstract

 
1- INTRODUCTION
This paper examines the impact of pandemics, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic, on businesses and the role of foresight in managing such crises. The business environment refers to a set of factors that influence organizational performance but are beyond the control of managers. The results of the National Business Environment Monitoring in Iran in recent years indicate a significant decline in the national business index. The outbreak of COVID-19 is identified as one of the key factors behind this downturn. This pandemic has had widespread effects on various economic and social sectors worldwide, increasing global poverty. Many countries, including developed nations, faced challenges in managing the crisis. The shutdown of businesses and the imposition of broad restrictions caused severe shocks to the global economy. One of the main challenges during this period was the need for businesses to adopt strategies that enhance their flexibility. In times of crisis and uncertainty, companies must increase the flexibility and innovation of their supply chain processes. Integrating the supply chain and innovation in response to these conditions can help improve business performance. Through a foresight approach and scenario planning, this study assessed the status of service providing in the healthcare sector during pandemics. Foresight, a systematic method for studying long-term futures in various domains, helps identify emerging technologies and sectors, predicting economic and social opportunities. Paying attention to the future and planning for crisis conditions can play a key role in coping with future crises.
 
2- METHODOLOGY
This qualitative applied, and foresight research uses a combined method of scenario planning and cross-impact analysis. The scenario planning is based on the Pirinen and Lindqvist model, which involves defining the problem, analyzing key elements, developing, assessing, and refining scenarios, and applying scenarios in decision-making. The study involves 15 experts selected based on their knowledge and experience. Through semi-structured interviews, the study identifies factors that improve business in four dimensions: innovation, flexibility, demand chain resilience, and demand chain integration under pandemic conditions. The scenarios were validated using the Scenario Wizard software based on consistency and likelihood.
 
 
3- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Much like other cities in the country, Shahroud faces various challenges during pandemics. The healthcare sector is one of the sectors that experience significant disruption under pandemic conditions. This research has analyzed the Shahroud healthcare system as its case. Twenty-six factors influencing business improvement during pandemics were identified from semi-structured interviews, and categorized into four categories: innovation, flexibility, resilience, and integration. The reliability was assessed by the test-retest method, with interviews coded over ten days. The reliability coefficient was above 60%, confirming the trustworthiness of the coding. In addition, Cohen’s kappa coefficient was calculated at 0.692, further indicating agreement among the codings. The research utilized the MICMAC software to explore the direct relationships between variables. The influence of these factors on each other was represented graphically, with red lines denoting strong impacts and blue lines indicating weaker connections. The next step involved scenario planning using the Scenario Wizard software, generating five strong, consistent scenarios out of 783 possibilities, focusing on optimistic, pessimistic, and probable outcomes. The study also involved creating hypothetical future scenarios and quantitatively analyzing the cross-impact of various factors. The software identified and ranked possible future scenarios by their likelihood, with five highly compatible and strong scenarios being extracted for further analysis. These scenarios represent varying degrees of business responses to pandemic challenges, focusing on elements such as continuous innovation, flexible planning, resilient supply chains, and integrated support activities. Ultimately, these findings offer strategic insights for businesses and policymakers to better adapt to future pandemics or crises.
 
4- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Based on findings from the Shahroud healthcare system, several strategic recommendations are provided for improving business operations during pandemics or similar crises. These recommendations aim to equip businesses with the tools to not only survive but thrive during pandemics by fostering agility, cooperation, and preparedness.

Encouraging Innovation: Businesses should continuously innovate, particularly in adapting their products, services, and delivery methods to meet changing demands during a pandemic. This includes embracing digital transformation, such as telemedicine in healthcare or e-commerce in retail.
Enhancing Flexibility: Flexibility in operations, including workforce management and supply chain adaptability, is essential. Organizations should be prepared to shift resources, modify work environments (e.g., remote work), and respond rapidly to disruptions.
Building Resilience: Resilience can be strengthened by diversifying suppliers, creating buffer stocks, and investing in long-term crisis planning. Businesses should also focus on employee well-being and organizational stability to maintain functionality during crises.
Promoting Integration: Collaboration and integration between sectors (e.g., public and private healthcare or businesses and government) are critical. Effective communication and partnerships help ensure that resources are shared, and policies are aligned to manage the pandemic efficiently.
Scenario Planning: Businesses should engage in scenario planning to anticipate and prepare for future challenges. This involves analyzing best-case, worst-case, and probable scenarios to develop contingency plans that minimize risks and seize opportunities during uncertain times.

Keywords

• Business Management
• Scenario Planning
• Cross-Impact Analysis
• Healthcare System

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